Recent polling data reveals a surprising shift in Alaska’s political landscape.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now within reach of former President Donald Trump in the state—a place Democrats haven’t claimed in a presidential election for sixty years.
Poll Details and Timing
The poll, conducted by Alaska Survey Research on September 11 and 12 following the ABC News presidential debate, indicates that Harris is trailing Trump by just five points among likely voters.
Trump is currently at 47 percent support, while Harris has garnered 42 percent.
Historical Context
Alaska’s last Democratic presidential win was back in 1964 when President Lyndon B. Johnson took the state.
In the 2020 election, Trump won Alaska by over 52 percent of the vote, outpacing President Biden by a margin of 10 points—just over 36,000 votes.
This was the narrowest Republican victory in Alaska since 1992, as Trump had won the state by more than 15 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Polling Analysis and Future Outlook
While Trump still leads in the latest polls, the gap has significantly narrowed compared to his previous campaigns.
Polling analyst Nate Silver pointed out that Harris’s chances of winning Alaska are higher than in Florida or Texas, giving her a 22 percent chance of carrying the state—a notable improvement over her odds in those other key battlegrounds.
Debate Impact and State’s Independent Streak
The poll also highlights that 67 percent of respondents watched the recent presidential debate.
Of those, 52 percent felt Harris emerged as the winner, compared to 29 percent who thought Trump came out on top.
Despite Alaska’s strong Republican leanings in presidential races, the state has shown an independent streak in other elections.
For instance, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski secured reelection in 2020 despite Trump’s support for her opponent, and Democrat Mary Peltola won both a special election and a full term in the state’s ranked-choice voting system in 2022.