Recent figures indicate a 10 percent decrease in net immigration to the UK last year, a key issue in the upcoming election.
Despite this reduction, the net immigration figure for 2023 remains substantial at 685,000. This figure is slightly higher than the population of Sheffield.
Additionally, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised the previous year’s net immigration figure to 764,000, highlighting the scale of the issue.
Home Office Measures and Early Effects
The Home Office emphasized that these estimates do not reflect the major measures introduced in December, which are already beginning to impact immigration trends.
These measures included overhauling family, study, and work-related visas and restricting dependants accompanying visa holders.
While it is too early to confirm a downward trend, initial data shows a slowing rate of people arriving in the UK and a rising rate of emigration.
Drivers of Migration: Work Over Study
In 2023, work-related migration overtook study as the primary driver of immigration.
The number of people arriving from outside the EU on work-related visas increased significantly.
The revised net migration figure for 2022 is now 764,000, up from the earlier estimate of 745,000. In 2023, approximately 1.22 million people immigrated to the UK, while 532,000 emigrated. This compares to 1.26 million immigrants and 493,000 emigrants in 2022.
Emigration Trends: Non-EU Nationals Leading the Way
The rise in long-term emigration from the UK has been driven largely by non-EU nationals, particularly those who initially arrived on study visas.
The ONS data precedes a series of restrictions introduced by the Government in early 2024 aimed at reducing the record number of legal immigrants to Britain.
Government Response and Future Plans
Home Secretary James Cleverly expressed optimism about the recent data, noting a 10 percent fall in net migration and a 25 percent drop in visa applications so far in 2024.
He attributed this progress to the policies of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative government but acknowledged that more work remains.
Cleverly emphasized the importance of sticking to the current plan rather than reverting to previous policies.
Analysis by Migration Experts
Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory, pointed out that high net migration has persisted due to several factors.
However, she noted that early data suggests a potential decline in net migration later in 2024 following recent policy changes.
Breakdown of Non-EU Immigration
The latest estimates show a significant increase in non-EU immigration for work-related reasons, rising from 277,000 in the year ending December 2022 to 423,000 in the year ending December 2023.
This shift has made work the leading reason for long-term migration, surpassing study. Notably, over 40 percent of those moving to the UK for work-related reasons came from India or Nigeria, primarily in the health and social care sectors.
Interestingly, the number of non-EU nationals arriving as dependants of those on long-term work visas (219,000) was higher than the number of main applicants (204,000).
Historical Trends in Net Migration
Net migration to the UK has fluctuated sharply in recent years. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the figure was on a downward trend, falling from an estimated 276,000 in 2018 to 184,000 in 2019.
It dropped further to an estimated 93,000 in 2020 due to travel restrictions during the pandemic.
The total then rose to 466,000 in 2021 before reaching a record 764,000 in 2022. The most recent estimate of 685,000 for 2023 suggests that levels are starting to fall, though it is too early to determine if this indicates a new downward trend.
Political Reactions: Conservative and Labour Perspectives
Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper criticized the Conservative government’s handling of immigration, noting that net migration has more than trebled since Rishi Sunak and his party promised to reduce it in the last election.
Cooper highlighted the 14 years of Conservative policies, which she claims have failed both the economy and immigration.
She pointed out a 50 percent increase in work migration last year due to the government’s inability to address skills shortages effectively.
Cooper proposed that Labour would implement proper plans to link the points-based immigration system with efforts to boost domestic skills.
Conclusion: The Ongoing Immigration Debate
The recent decline in net immigration figures represents a significant point of discussion in UK politics.
While the Conservative government highlights the early success of their recent measures, opposition parties and migration experts call for more comprehensive and effective strategies.
As the country heads towards the next election, immigration remains a critical and contentious issue, with all sides proposing different solutions to manage and control the flow of people into the UK.
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